Homeowners with 2-3% Mortgages May Start Selling in 2026, Shifting Housing Market Dynamics – Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Housing market dynamics are set to shift in 2026 as homeowners locked into mortgage rates between 2-3% may begin selling their properties. This anticipated change is driven by evolving economic and market conditions that could make selling more attractive, despite the historically low borrowing costs that have previously discouraged turnover.

Who should care: city planners, smart city program managers, real estate technology leaders, mobility operations teams, and urban infrastructure decision-makers.

What happened?

HousingWire has forecasted a potential increase in home sales in 2026, signaling a notable shift in housing market behavior. Traditionally, homeowners with mortgage rates as low as 2-3% have been reluctant to sell, since moving would typically mean taking on higher borrowing costs in a rising interest rate environment. However, several converging factors suggest this trend may reverse. Changes in the broader economic landscape—including potential adjustments in interest rates, inflation trends, and wage growth—are prompting homeowners to reconsider their financial strategies. Additionally, evolving buyer preferences and demographic shifts may increase demand for different types of housing, encouraging sellers to capitalize on favorable market conditions. This anticipated uptick in listings could expand housing inventory, which has been constrained in recent years, potentially easing price pressures. The resulting market balance may create fresh opportunities for both buyers and sellers, reshaping real estate dynamics. As these developments unfold, real estate professionals and urban planners will need to closely monitor market signals to adapt their strategies and infrastructure planning accordingly.

Why now?

This forecasted rise in home sales for 2026 aligns with broader economic trends and anticipated shifts in monetary policy that could influence interest rates. Over the past 18 months, the housing market has experienced volatility driven by economic uncertainty and fluctuating borrowing costs. As the global economy stabilizes and central banks consider adjusting rates, homeowners currently benefiting from low fixed mortgage rates may find it financially advantageous to sell and reposition their assets. This timing reflects a gradual normalization of market conditions, moving away from the historically low-rate environment that has suppressed turnover. Consequently, the market is poised for increased activity as homeowners reassess their options in light of evolving economic realities.

So what?

An increase in home sales could have wide-ranging effects on the real estate market and urban environments. For city planners and smart city program managers, rising housing turnover may signal shifts in population distribution, requiring adjustments to infrastructure projects and community services. Real estate technology leaders stand to benefit from heightened demand for digital platforms that streamline transactions and improve buyer-seller engagement. Meanwhile, mobility operations teams should prepare for changes in transportation patterns as new residential developments emerge and commuting behaviors evolve. Understanding these shifts will be critical for stakeholders aiming to optimize resources and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

What this means for you:

• For city planners: Anticipate changes in housing demand and proactively adjust urban development and infrastructure plans to accommodate shifting populations.
• For real estate technology leaders: Invest in enhancing digital tools and platforms to support increased transaction volumes and improve user experience.
• For mobility operations teams: Monitor evolving residential patterns to adapt transportation services and optimize route planning accordingly.

Quick Hits

• Impact / Risk: A rise in home sales could intensify market competition and cause fluctuations in property values.
• Operational Implication: Real estate firms may need to scale up operations to manage higher transaction volumes and increased client engagement.
• Action This Week: Analyze current housing market data to anticipate potential impacts; brief executive teams on expected market shifts; assess technology platforms for scalability and readiness.